IMF upbeat about global outlook

A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears：that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan，the International Monetary Fund's chief economist.

Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Bank's annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in today's newspaper，Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.

A leak of the fund's economic forecasts，published in the FT last week，showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006，compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.

These figures and Mr Rajan's thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMF's World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead，the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.

A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times，was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.

"What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted" he says.

Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. "The risks are two-sided" he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. "The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises."

But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China，oil exporters and Japan.

For the past 18 months，the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances，involving a slump in the US dollar，much higher global interest rates and a global recession，risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.

It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit，Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms，China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi，and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and "greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia"，a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.

一、参考译文：

国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的观点可以概括为两个方面：一方面庆祝世界经济4年来的出色表现，另一方面警告大好时光可能会惨淡收场。

国际货币基金组织与世界银行(World Bank)的年会本周末将在新加坡召开。在此之前，拉詹先生在伦敦接受了《金融时报》采访并在本报今天的报纸上撰文。他的观点表明，国际货币基金组织对世界经济的基本状况及其前景比先前更为乐观。

国际货币基金组织透露了对经济所作的部分预测(《金融时报》上周发表了这些内容)，它们显示，该组织预计2006年全球经济增长为5.1%，而相比之下，该组织于今年4月所作的上一次预测为4.8%.

国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)将于今天发表，届时有关上述数据和拉詹想法的真实性将得到证实。该基金组织预计，2007年，发达国家的经济增长将减速，但随着新兴国家的经济蓬勃发展，世界经济仍将增长4.9%.