Chinese output set to depress steel valuations

Steel company valuations are poised for a fall as increased Chinese output is cutting its reliance on imported supplies.

China, for long the main driver of surging demand, is making more of its own steel, causing a potential excess of supply in other parts of the world.

Shares in BlueScope, Australia''s biggest steel company, dropped 15 per cent on Friday after it warned that profits this year would drop sharply due to higher steel production from China spilling into world markets, especially in Asia.

Shares in ThyssenKrupp of Germany fell, along with other steel companies such as the Anglo-Dutch Corus and Luxembourg''s Arcelor, as investors reasoned that the BlueScope warning could have repercussions for steelmakers globally.

Last month Ulrich Middelmann, deputy chairman of ThyssenKrupp was complaining about the high price of many metals companies.

Now, however, he may be cheered by the fact that some of the steelmakers he might be keen to purchase would soon start to look more affordable.

After a recent spate of consolidation in the industry, many steelmakers are looking at acquisitions.

Large groups such as Arcelor and Mittal Steel have snapped up smaller companies to give themselves more power to dictate prices.

After doubling in many markets in the previous three years, average prices for steel fell in the first six months of this year. However, they have edged up in recent weeks, helped by an increase in manufacturers'' stocks in the US.

That trend now looks almost certain to go into reverse in the next six months, even though the fall in prices seems unlikely to be dramatic.

The biggest culprit for the likely price decline is higher production in China which is not being matched by stronger internal demand. As a result, according to CRU, net imports into China of steel sheet an important indicator for the industry will fall from 23m tonnes in 2003 to 6.5m tonnes next year and 4.2m tonnes in 2007.

The likely fall in steel exports from other countries into China does not look all that great but it promises to be enough to influence global pricing trends.

一、参考译文

中国钢铁增产打压全球钢铁企业股价

全球钢铁企业的市值将出现下降，因为中国钢铁产量不断增加，令其正在减少对进口供应的依赖。

长期以来，中国一直是钢铁需求飙升的主要推动力，但目前中国自己生产的钢铁增多，导致世界其它地区可能出现供应过剩。

澳大利亚最大钢铁公司BlueScope的股价周五下挫15%，此前由于中国钢铁产量上升已影响全球市场，尤其是亚洲市场，公司警告今年利润将急剧下降。

德国的蒂森克虏伯(ThyssenKrupp)股票与英荷哥鲁氏(Anglo-Dutch Corus)、卢森堡阿塞洛(Arcelor)等企业股票的价格相继下跌，因为投资者认为，BlueScope的预警可能会对全球钢铁业产生影响。

蒂森克虏伯副董事长乌尔里希？米德曼(Ulrich Middelmann)上月抱怨说，许多金属企业价格很高。

但眼下他或许会对一个事实感到高兴：不久后，他可能很想收购的一些钢铁生产商，会开始看上去价格更便宜、更能让人承受。

在近期的钢铁行业整合大潮后，许多钢铁制造商正在考虑收购。

阿塞洛和米塔尔钢铁(Mittal Steel)等大型集团已收购一些较小的企业，以使自己得到更大的定价能力。